A Incidência da Dengue Explicada por Variáveis Climáticas na Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5540/tcam.2025.026.e01476Keywords:
Epidemiologia, An´alise Multivariada, Series Temporais, Sensoriamento RemotoAbstract
The increase in notifications on the incidence of dengue testify to the overload of the public health systems and calls attention to the improper use of public resources that could be used to fight poverty and the consequent income inequality. Although dengue is a vector-borne disease, it has been observed that populations living in areas with different urban, economic and demographic patterns are impacted differently by this arbovirus. Understanding how the temporal evolution of dengue occurred in recent years can provide healthcare officials with a more detailed knowledge of the dynamics of the spread of dengue and its vectors, thus assisting the decision-making process and orienting local authorities in organizing controls in endemic areas. To achieve this objective, some time series models for analysis and forecasting were proposed and adjusted to the field data. This work describes a study carried out for the municipalities of Guapimirim and Magé, located in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro. The modelling of the time series was based on ARMAX models, which allow to estimate the relationship between the incidence of dengue and climatic variables.
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